Poll suggests gov primaries 'wide open'
By Matt Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
Staff Writer
PORTLAND — A new poll out this afternoon suggests both Republican and Democratic primaries are “wide open” because a large amount of voters remain undecided as to whom they will vote for – a week away from the election.
According to the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll, 61.7 percent of registered Democrats polled said they were undecided. On the Republican side, 47 percent came in as undecided.
The poll had 13.3 percent of Democrats voting for or leaning toward Elizabeth Mitchell, followed by Steve Rowe at 11.7 percent, Rosa Scarcelli at 7 percent and Patrick McGowan at 6.3 percent.
For Republicans, 17 percent were voting for or leaning toward Les Otten, followed by Paul LePage at 10.3 percent, Peter Mills at 8.4 percent, Steve Abbott at 8.3 percent, Bill Beardsley at 3.6 percent, Bruce Poliquin at 3.3 percent and Matt Jacobson at 2 percent. Pollster Patrick Murphy noted in the poll that “the high ‘undecided factor’ is probably attributable to widespread lack of voter awareness of the candidates and their positions on key issues.” Both races are “wide open,” Murphy noted.
“The two likely victors are those who can best ‘close the sale’ with voters in the final week and have the most effective (get out the vote) organizations,” he wrote.
The poll was a random sample of 600 likely Maine voters, 300 Democrats and 300 Republicans, interviewed by telephone. They were interviewed between May 21 and May 29. The poll had a 5.7 percent margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level, meaning if the survey were repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results within a plus/minus percent margin of error.
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36 COMMENTS
David said...
There's a reason politicians spend so much money on those ridiculous placards that, at most, have an empty slogan -- and usually just have the candidate's name. Sadly, they work. Libby Mitchell and Les Otten are the likely winners because of name recognition -- good or bad. Because these are two of the weakest candidates, Maine is going to suffer as a result.
June 1, 2010 at 2:16 PM Report abuse
sierra-tango said...
David: all the more reason to vote for Eliot Cutler.
June 1, 2010 at 2:43 PM Report abuse
henryelm said...
a week before the primary and I have yet to get ANY literature in the mail from ANY candidate!!!NOT ONE PIECE OF CAMPAIGN LITERATURE!!!IS someone in the PO throwing the stuff away?? Maybe the candidates aren't interested in GETTING ANY VOTES!!!
June 1, 2010 at 3:03 PM Report abuse
henryelm said...
What if they held an election and NO ONE showed up??
June 1, 2010 at 3:07 PM Report abuse
NoYaResident said...
This is shocking to me. I am a very active, but unenrolled, voter. I will enroll as either a Democrat or Republican on June 8 as I am equivocating between supporting McGowan or Mills. After watching debates and interviews, it is hard for me to fathom that either Mitchell or Otten is the best candidate. In fact, I find them to be two of the weakest candidates. Sadly, the only thing I could attribute the support to is name recognition. I do agree with "sierra-tango." If either Mitchell or Otten wins, I will pull very strongly for Cutler.
June 1, 2010 at 3:09 PM Report abuse
DavyJones said...
I think Libby would be a great Governor. She's been the speaker of the house and is currently the President of the Senate. Not to mention her years spent working in Augusta. She would make a great leader! Libby in 10!
June 1, 2010 at 4:02 PM Report abuse
T2 said...
What David said is very true. I read an article about a year ago that talked about political research done in Maine and found out that Mainers tend to vote for the incumbent nearly every time. That basically translates into who is best known. If people have seen a name or heard a name more then they tend to vote for that person. In the case of an incumbent they will vote for that person with little regard for their popularity or performance. It really is sad. I think it is the reason why we have such a mediocre pool of elected officials representing Maine. Our next governor will have more to do with who has the name recognition more than anything else. It is no wonder this state is in such a mess.
June 1, 2010 at 4:02 PM Report abuse
bookman said...
I imagine that many voters are declaring themselves undecided because they know and like 2 or more of the candidates, or simply do not want to tip their hand.
June 1, 2010 at 4:07 PM Report abuse
hoagies said...
LePage is a nut, but he will likely win that Republican Party. If this poll puts him in second place, the strong turnout of his Tea Party supporters will be enough to put him over the top in the primary. Although he looks good to the right wing of the Republican party, he will be virtually unelectable this fall. Do we really want a state that is run like Mardens?
June 1, 2010 at 4:12 PM Report abuse
dfwelch said...
So, let's get to the root of the problem. As stated by David, people are simple-minded and vote for the person whose name they most recognize. The answer? More education for the masses. But all we can seem to muster in this state is to whine about educators because "they're all liberals." NEWS FLASH!!! Liberals are the ones who want things TO CHANGE!! The Conservatives, on the other hand, are happy with the status quo.
June 1, 2010 at 4:13 PM Report abuse
TheLeRue said...
There are some good choices among the Democrats. I wouldn't vote for a Republican at any level. A vote for a Republican is a vote for the party of loons, goons, and "tea baggers." These ignorant buffoons don't seem to recall that Baldacci cut the budget, Bush and Republicans wrecked the national economy, and the WORST Maine Governor in 50 years was "Jock" McKernan, a REPUBLICAN! I'll vote for McGowan. Mitchell is too old and too vulnerable in the general election.
June 1, 2010 at 4:32 PM Report abuse
gotabor said...
I guess lerues handout from the state was a little late in the mail this month??? testy testy.
June 1, 2010 at 4:36 PM Report abuse
ilbcnu2 said...
Otten & Mitchell?.. I don't think so. There are other Polls showing LePage & Rowe with a growing following and 1'st place standings. Rowe says that we don't have a welfare problem in this state. LePage says that it is the most glaring problem that is facing the next gov. The fact is, 109,000 people have been added to the welfare role in the last few years. LePage is obviously right. He has a plan to help people who are trapped in the welfare pit to be able to get them working again and help them become productive. Look at his website and vote for this man. LEPAGE FOR GOVERNOR!!
June 1, 2010 at 4:40 PM Report abuse
David said...
Cutler is a very weak candidate in his own right. If the best you can say is that you worked on energy issues for the Carter administration, you're reaching.
June 1, 2010 at 4:45 PM Report abuse
David said...
LePage isn't crazy, he's simply not very polished. I've had a chance to talk to the guy and he acquits himself well. We could do worse. Far worse. Jacobson, Scarcelli, Mills, and Poliquin are the best of the bunch, in my opinion.
June 1, 2010 at 5:14 PM Report abuse
DuaneL said...
McKernan was NOT the worse Gov in 50 years, Longley was! Couldn't get along with anyone and only his opinion counted (much like LePAge seems to be).
June 1, 2010 at 5:22 PM Report abuse
jude said...
Not a word about Rosa Scarcelli. She's young, smart, an outsider and I think her idea about a state bank for state funds to be invested back into Maine is interesting. I'm surprised she didn't do better in this poll, because she would be the obvious choice for young professional women. Maybe the girls only have cell phones and weren't reached by the pollster.
June 1, 2010 at 5:29 PM Report abuse
David said...
Can there be any dispute that Baldacci is the worst governor in recent memory? I seems to specialize in bailing water on sinking ships, while hiding below deck.
June 1, 2010 at 5:30 PM Report abuse
Acton said...
As a member of the silent, unpolled majority of the Republican Party - my vote is for Matt Jacobson. I am not going to vote for the status quo. I am only going to vote for smart, independent minded leaders who are committed to bringing change and fiscall sanity to our government. Sending career politicians and millionaires who have shown no fiscal discipline in their own campaigns is not the answer. I encourage other to do the same. Vote for Jacobson!
June 1, 2010 at 5:50 PM Report abuse
Roger said...
I am voting for either McGowan or Peter Mills. I would like to write in Angus King
June 1, 2010 at 6:28 PM Report abuse
boofaloo said...
This will be the year I finally write in Mike Chitwood. Come home buddy! We need you!
June 1, 2010 at 6:53 PM Report abuse
PalmTree said...
Lepage certainly is not to be taken lightly - he knows how to get things done and is smart enough to have run successful businesses. Poliquin has the tools to make things happen and will outwork everyone. Libby M. is a fine person but is no different than McGowan and Baldacci for that matter - she understands Augusta, but an Augusta that was not facing the problems of today. More of the same, I'm afraid. Same cast of characters, too. Same with Rowe. Fresh visions are in need.
June 1, 2010 at 7:01 PM Report abuse
barrylincoln said...
DavyJones, are you directly related to Libby or employed by her or both?
June 1, 2010 at 7:03 PM Report abuse
fairisfair said...
I've enjoyed reading many of these comments today...and I so agree....Otten & Mitchell are 2 of the weakest, and most poorly suited candidates. They have only name recognition, yet, for many Mainers, that is just good enough. I think we have some better spoken and more intelligent candidates, on BOTH sides. But I don't think the pool of Maine voters is going to support "an outsider" regardless of their innovative thinking or fiscally sound ideas. I am so sad to see the shape that this state is in, and to observe how politically close-minded it has become. We'll never even begin to dig out of the economic hole we are in, unless we weed out the millionaire candidates, and those that are all talk and no substance.
June 1, 2010 at 7:10 PM Report abuse
Divinity said...
No proud patriot will support any candidate with more than twenty teeth. The only thing you need to hear from any of these candidates is "Ahhhh"
June 1, 2010 at 8:00 PM Report abuse
SS1wcmFnbWF0aXN0 said...
Both parties need to put up a candidate that is a) qualified for the job and b) has cross-over appeal to lure unenrolled voters. R - Mills D - Rowe I'm an independent, and I would vote for either of these two. But the party folks will do what they always do... Elect an extremist or a dinosaur.
June 1, 2010 at 8:04 PM Report abuse
David said...
Rowe?! We don't need an apparatchik.
June 1, 2010 at 9:00 PM Report abuse
gotabor said...
Unaccounted for new comers to the political scene in the form of the tea party will put Lepage over the top.
June 1, 2010 at 9:20 PM Report abuse
ThistleDew said...
Paul Lepage; not polished? Who cares? He has done an amazing job in Wtvl. He is a Republican with an all Dem. city council, in a mostly Dem small Maine city, re-elected twice..! Why? He lowered taxes with no loss of services, raised the city's credit rating, increased the rainy day fund x 10 and is in nobody's pocket. Paul LePage is exactly what Maine needs.
June 1, 2010 at 9:45 PM Report abuse
David said...
Defensive a little? I didn't say unpolished was bad. It's actually refreshing. LePage has street smarts and a solid streak of common sense. Frankly, I think he'd make a good governor, but I suspect many of his supporters would be surprised at how he'd stay away from divisive social issues and some of the more ridiculous elements of the platform. Growing up on the streets makes you nothing if not pragmatic and results oriented.
June 1, 2010 at 9:59 PM Report abuse
Kellog said...
In order to grow our economy we need to attract jobs to Maine. Matt Jacobson is the only candidate who has any experience doing that. It is not hard to connect the dots. Vote for the guy who can solve that challenge and we are half way to solving our economic challenges. None of the other candidates bring that experience to the table.
June 1, 2010 at 10:16 PM Report abuse
ThistleDew said...
David, I too think that Lepage's background is a refreshing change, and being streetsmart has always been a plus. That being said, everything else that you've said is pure conjecture on your part. Did you grow up on the streets? How could you possibly know how he'd react to anything? Personally, I think that Paul Lepage's views on how this state should be run comes from an extremely unique perspective that only he knows. His record thus far has been a winning success story. Let's give him a run at the Blaine House. I'm predicting a landslide victory for re-election
June 1, 2010 at 10:40 PM Report abuse
notaxforme said...
Yes, LePage and Marden's have been a symbol of quality!
June 2, 2010 at 7:58 AM Report abuse
Divinity said...
Street Smarts? Nothing these Johns can't get cured with a little penicillin. Of course, if they delay treatment for too long it can go tertiary and smarting will be the least of their problems.
June 2, 2010 at 8:50 AM Report abuse
Jonsey said...
There are alot of candidates - each with some good ideas, but those without political experience are in for a rude awakening as to how the 'game is played'. Mitchell and Rowe have extensive experience both in politics and in the public sector. Their careers have been to improve the quality of life in Maine.
June 2, 2010 at 9:05 AM Report abuse
HoHum said...
Jonesey You said about mitchell and rowe Their careers have been to improve the quality of life in Maine. The only question I would ask you is do you beleive your life here in Maine is better becasue of these two? If so then I am happy for you, but those tow have increased welfare and the numbers of people coming to Maine for benefits. I just spoke wiht a police officer regarding some issues on destruction to personal property i have. He told me that the next Governor nees to reform welfare because people are coming to Maine from away and bringing drugs and issues becasue they qualify for welfare as soon as they arrive. He said they need to clean them up and send them back and that is from people on the street dealing with the better life the two yahoos created for some.
June 2, 2010 at 2:01 PM Report abuse