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THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR: LePage still leading

By Rebekah Metzler rmetzler@mainetoday.com
MaineToday Media State House Writer

AUGUSTA -- Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul LePage is running "slightly ahead" of the field, according to the latest Rasmussen poll released on Monday.

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Paul LePage

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The Waterville mayor received support from 38 percent of 500 likely Maine voters in Maine who were contacted Aug. 12, according to the poll. The poll, which is automated, was conducted on landline phones only and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

A similar poll released about a month ago showed LePage with support from 39 percent of likely Maine voters.

Libby Mitchell, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, also held steady in the new poll, with 30 percent of voters supporting her compared to 31 percent in July.

Independent candidate Eliot Cutler had support from 16 percent of those polled. Four percent said they were supporting another candidate and 11 percent said they were undecided, according to the poll.

Spokesman for candidates Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, both independents, said they were disappointed Rasmussen declined to ask voters about all five candidates on the Maine ballot, and questioned the poll's accuracy.

"By only listing some of the choices, many voters are led to a selection or a name they recognize, not necessarily one they will ultimately support," said Dennis Bailey of the Moody campaign.

Michael Pajak, communications director for the Scott campaign, said people shouldn't look at the poll seriously because it's only asking part of the question.

"There are five candidates. They are only asking about three of them. That's really all you need to know about it," he said.

Political scientist Mark Brewer, a professor at the University of Maine, dismissed claims that, because it didn't ask about Moody and Scott, the poll was inaccurate.

"I don't think it matters a great deal," he said. "But for what it's worth, if this was my poll, I would put them all on there. They are all on the ballot, so you put them all on."

Both Brewer and Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington, said the big takeaway from the poll was that LePage is maintaining his lead over the field.

"A lot of Democrats thought LePage made a number of mistakes a few weeks ago, some were talking about his train trip being a disaster and calling it the 'crazy train' tour," Melcher said. "But the numbers haven't fallen off."

Brewer said he was surprised by LePage's ability to weather the bad press.

"The fact that his number hasn't really moved despite a rough patch there has got to be somewhat reassuring for his campaign," Brewer said. "I think these numbers are a win for LePage; it's a lose for Cutler, in the fact that he seems to have stagnated at this point. For Mitchell, it's kind of a draw."

Rebekah Metzler -- 620-7016

rmetzler@mainetoday.com