September 10, 2013

Possible winners, losers under Moscow's 11th-hour plan

By Brian Murphy / The Associated Press

A Russian-brokered proposal to place Syria's chemical arsenal under international control for eventual destruction would resonate far beyond Damascus and highlight the stakes at play among Assad's friends, foes and nervous bystanders struggling with the complexities of Syria's civil war.

Here's a look at the possible winners and losers under Moscow's 11th-hour plan:

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RUSSIA AND IRAN

Syria's main backers Iran and Russia have strongly opposed Western military retaliation over a suspected sarin gas attack on Aug. 21 — questioning the West's contention that Assad's forces were to blame instead of rebels, and warning of an even wider conflict in the Middle East. Both countries would certainly emerge claiming victory in the latest brinksmanship.

For Moscow, it means recognition of its role as an international mediator that can do more than just try to block Western initiatives at the U.N. Security Council. It also drives home the importance of Russian participation in any future efforts to negotiate an end to Syria's civil war, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives. Syria remains Russia's main foothold in the Middle East and an important Mediterranean port.

Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly stressed that his nation is an essential player in the Syrian crisis and can — if its interests demand — work with the U.S. and others on potential solutions. U.S. President Barack Obama said the Russian proposal had been raised during his 20-minute meeting with Putin on the sidelines of last week's G-20 summit in St. Petersburg.

Iran has even more on the line. It depends on Syria as its linchpin Arab world partner and a pathway to Iran's proxy militia, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Anything that could weaken Assad's hold on power is seen with deep unease in Tehran. But while the Islamic Republic often trumpets its loyalty to Assad, it has gradually put forth the idea that the leader is expendable but his power structure is not. Iran has proposed peace initiatives — rejected by rebels — that would allow elections that could oust Assad but leave intact key elements of his Iran-friendly rule.

Iran's quandary over Assad has been compounded by the alleged government-backed chemical attack. Iranian troops suffered chemical clouds during the 1980-88 war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the deaths and suffering of veterans is a centerpiece of Iran's commemorations of the conflict.

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SYRIA

Assad's choices bring together survival and surrender.

The Russian plan would allow the Syrian leader to avoid the damage that U.S.-led strikes, no matter how narrow and limited, would certainly inflict on a Syrian military already stretched thin and under tremendous strain from a more than two-year civil war. It also would block a possible stepped up rebel offensive linked to any Western military action.

Yet Assad would be forced to relinquish his chemical arms stocks and open the door to possible deeper international probes into the extent of his wider arsenal as inspectors look for chemical stores. The Syrian opposition accuses the regime of using such weapons on several occasions, but the casualties from such purported attacks have been a mere fraction of the total death toll in the conflict.

Some critics have called Assad's quick support of the Russian plan a potential stalling tactic, allowing him to quell Western debate over military action while drawing out the process of actually turning over the chemical stocks. In any case, Assad has benefited in the past from unexpected directions, including al-Qaida inspired militants joining the rebellion and raising concern in the West about whether extremist forces could gain ground if Assad was toppled.

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