Maine news, sports, weather | Kennebec Journal, Augusta, Maine

Who's on first? Nobody

2 weeks till primaries, major-party candidates seek traction

By Matt Wickenheiser mwickenheiser@mainetoday.com
Staff Writer

It’s two weeks until the gubernatorial primaries — and neither party has a front runner.

“It’s very difficult; there is no scientific information out there, at least that any candidates are sharing,” said Sandy Maisel, a professor of government at Colby College. “You assume a couple have to be polling. If it were showing something good, we’d be seeing it.”

There are seven Republicans and four Democrats running in the primaries.

Maine’s a small state and nobody does any real primary polling, noted Brian Duff, a political scientist at the University of New England.

“In a way, it’s kind of nice,” Duff said. “We can have a real democratic — in the small-‘d’ sense — contest.”

That can be disorienting, to an extent, said Duff. No matter how much people complain about polling, people do look for public opinion as a way to gauge a campaign.

Name recognition polls put Republican Les Otten head and shoulders above his competitors and Democrat Elizabeth Mitchell with a lead on her rivals.

According to a recently released Critical Insights poll, 30 percent of registered voters could name Otten as a candidate, with the next Republican being Peter Mills at 16 percent. Mitchell was at 16 percent, with the next closest Democrat being Steve Rowe at 11 percent.

Otten’s name recognition reflects the money he’s spent over the last year on media spots, Duff suggested.

Mitchell likely gets a bump from the news releases she put out at the end of the Legislative session, Maisel said, where she presided over the Senate as president. And, he added, there’s likely some association between her last name and that of one of Maine’s most famous politicians, George Mitchell — even though there’s no relation.

But most telling in the poll of 600 voters was that 42 percent of those polled couldn’t name any candidate — from either party.

The Critical Insights poll had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points at the 90 percent confidence level. It was taken April 28 to May 7, ahead of both parties’ state conventions.

Mark Brewer, political scientist at the University of Maine, said the lack of a front runner is unusual.

“These candidates need to start ratcheting up their TV efforts,” said Brewer. “In this race, in this crowded field, I think name recognition is going to be crucial.”

One exception, said Brewer, was Republican Paul LePage.

His support isn’t being generated by his media campaign as much as it is from “this grass roots tea party stuff that’s going on with him,” said Brewer.

Mainers will likely be deluged with political ads over the next two weeks, Brewer said. There’s the danger for candidates that their message gets lost in the noise, he said.

All the candidates have either run televised ads or plan to over the next few weeks.

And there’s been an increase in direct mailings to supporters, or possible supporters, said Chris Jackson, a lobbyist with the Maine State Chamber who ran Republican nominee Chandler Woodcock’s 2006 campaign.

But he’d expect to see those sorts of things at this point in the game, Jackson added.

The behind-the-scenes action is what’s going to count at this stage, said Jackson. That boils down to the ground game, the get-out-the-vote strategy for the candidates.

“That’s going to determine who wins,” said Jackson. “Primaries are all about being very focused on who your supporters are and getting them to the polls. It’s what always makes a difference.”

Candidates have to have the cash in hand and an organization to get voters out, said Jackson.

As of April 29, the most recent financial reporting period available, Republican Steve Abbott had accumulated $263,193 and spent $197,121; Republican Bill Beardsley accumulated $300,974 and spent $64,769; Republican Matt Jacobson accumulated $138,221 and spent $107,236; LePage accumulated $217,352 and spent $28,452; Otten accumulated $1,392,687 and spent $1,366,652; Republican Bruce Poliquin accumulated $605,551 and spent $456,237; Democrat Steve Rowe accumulated $407,737 and spent $276,332; Democrat Rosa Scarcelli accumulated $321,991 and spent $293,761.

Republican Peter Mills has $600,000 in public money under the Clean Election Act; Democrats Patrick McGowan and Elizabeth Mitchell, running as Clean Election candidates, have initial disbursements of $400,000 each, which could grow to $600,000 if Rowe and Scarcelli raise more.

In addition to increased political ads, there has been a flurry of endorsements recently.

Rowe got an endorsement from the League of Young Voters. Abbott chalked up nods from Senate Assistant Minority Leader Jon Courtney and former Republican Leader Sen. Carol Weston. Earlier in the campaign, Mitchell got an endorsement from former President Bill Clinton and McGowan got one from former U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy II. Poliquin has received a number of endorsements from business owners around the state.

And there’s another factor that political watchers are monitoring: Whether tea party, anti-establishment sentiment seen in some national senate races will be a factor in Maine’s gubernatorial race.

On the Democrat side, Mitchell, McGowan and Rowe have all worked extensively in state government, while Scarcelli is an outsider.

On the Republican side, Mills is a long-serving legislator and Abbott was U.S. Sen. Susan Collins’ chief of staff. The other five candidates are regarded as outsiders.

“I don’t think Maine is going to be a hotbed of where this is going to happen,” said Duff of the anti-incumbent trend.

Jackson discounted talk on the Republican side that the candidate most electable in the November general would win the primary, or that the most conservative candidate would.