Wednesday, February 8, 2012
The state Department of Education on Monday released the school-by-school and statewide graduation rates for the 2008-09 school year.
So, what did we learn from this data release?
The statewide graduation rate apparently dropped to 80.4 percent from 83.5 percent during the 2007-08 school year.
Does that mean fewer Maine students who start high school are graduating?
Well, we can't exactly conclude that since the method the Department of Education used to calculate the 2008-09 rate changed. The 2008-09 rate is a measure of the percentage of students who began high school as freshman who had received diplomas four years later. The 2007-08 rate counted among graduates those students who took more than four years to earn their diplomas.
What year-to-year conclusions can we draw about Maine's progress in keeping students in school and seeing them through to graduation day? Well, none.
With a changed method of calculation, the 2007-08 rate will have no comparable calculation for the following year.
Of course, the Department of Education changed the way it calculates high school graduation rates in accordance with the No Child Left Behind law that passed in 2002 under President George W. Bush.
So, can we assume that the 2008-09 school year is a starting point for several years of good data about the percentage of students who earn high school degrees in four years or fewer?
Well, maybe not.
The No Child Left Behind law that's ushering in the four-year calculation is actually the latest iteration of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which is up for reauthorization and most certainly won't be reauthorized in the same NCLB form.
The Obama administration has laid out a reform blueprint (PDF warning) for the reauthorization that's heavy on more far-reaching data collection and meeting the needs of students who might not be expected to complete high school in four years.
Who knows how we'll be calculating graduation rates in just a few years? The blueprint offers no hints.